I’ve been reading about rising gas prices, falling home values, and the rest of the sad story we’re currently in. (Note: virtually all of it could have been avoided with wise forethought and appropriate action on our part. But it seems to be human nature that regardless of level of civilization, we’re just not hardwired to think more than a few days into the future.)

I notice a relentless sense of optimism surrounding the discussions. “Wah, gas prices are bad, until supply recovers…”

But wait… Our American infrastructure, our roads, our houses, our markets, our food production and distribution systems, all physically embody the assumption of cheap oil forever. It’s not just buying a more fuel efficient car; it’s about living in a subdivision that’s 50 miles from work. Even a fuel efficient car will start to cost.

The reality is that if gas prices go up, so does everything. Everything is transported, manufactured, or made out of petroleum. So oil costs more, everything costs more. We’ve never before been in a situation where everything just got more expensive, fundamentally. It’s tough to imagine what that might look like.

Some more food for thought:

• What if there’s no way to bring back oil supply, much less cheap oil? What happens then?
• What if we can’t develop and deploy alternative energy soon enough to replace oil?
• What if global warming can’t be slowed or stopped (and there are already 40 years’ worth of greenhouse gasses still working their way to the upper atmosphere, so a total reversal of CO2 production today would take 40 years before it would have any slowing impact on global warming)?

My early training was as an engineer. We were trained to think up all possible contingencies, plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

As far as I can tell, human civilization is facing several potentially catastrophic trends, all at once. And not only are we not planning for the worst, we’re not even mentioning it.

So in the interest of stimulating discussion, here are some thought questions:

• Assume a falling global production capacity as oil rises in price. (And currently, no alternative source can replace all uses of oil for anywhere near as cheaply.) What would an economic system look like when we can’t assume more production each year? Would growth still be considered the basic measure of health? If not, what would?
• Assume oil at $8/gallon, with wages falling in buying power across the board as oil gets scarce and basic commodities cost more. What kind of physical infrastructure would we have to create to continue to survive?
• During the transition period, when we’re shifting from the cheap-oil infrastructure to the new-way-of-living infrastructure, all our money and energy will be going into a shift to new infrastructure that doesn’t directly create new goods and services. (Remember: wages are stagnant, so people can’t afford to pay for all this on their own.) How do we fund the transition?
• What if global warming causes sea levels to rise 20 feet? Would our rescue busses wait, as they did during Katrina, for someone to pay them to help people escape? If not, how would our economic system provide for such a massive dislocation? And if it couldn’t, how would the survivors dispose of several million decomposing bodies?

Just a few thoughts…

Posted by Stever in Community, Oil, Misc