I’ve been reading about rising gas prices, falling home values, and the rest of the sad story we’re currently in. (Note: virtually all of it could have been avoided with wise forethought and appropriate action on our part. But it seems to be human nature that regardless of level of civilization, we’re just not hardwired to think more than a few days into the future.)

I notice a relentless sense of optimism surrounding the discussions. “Wah, gas prices are bad, until supply recovers…”

But wait… Our American infrastructure, our roads, our houses, our markets, our food production and distribution systems, all physically embody the assumption of cheap oil forever. It’s not just buying a more fuel efficient car; it’s about living in a subdivision that’s 50 miles from work. Even a fuel efficient car will start to cost.

The reality is that if gas prices go up, so does everything. Everything is transported, manufactured, or made out of petroleum. So oil costs more, everything costs more. We’ve never before been in a situation where everything just got more expensive, fundamentally. It’s tough to imagine what that might look like.

Some more food for thought:

• What if there’s no way to bring back oil supply, much less cheap oil? What happens then?
• What if we can’t develop and deploy alternative energy soon enough to replace oil?
• What if global warming can’t be slowed or stopped (and there are already 40 years’ worth of greenhouse gasses still working their way to the upper atmosphere, so a total reversal of CO2 production today would take 40 years before it would have any slowing impact on global warming)?

My early training was as an engineer. We were trained to think up all possible contingencies, plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

As far as I can tell, human civilization is facing several potentially catastrophic trends, all at once. And not only are we not planning for the worst, we’re not even mentioning it.

So in the interest of stimulating discussion, here are some thought questions:

• Assume a falling global production capacity as oil rises in price. (And currently, no alternative source can replace all uses of oil for anywhere near as cheaply.) What would an economic system look like when we can’t assume more production each year? Would growth still be considered the basic measure of health? If not, what would?
• Assume oil at $8/gallon, with wages falling in buying power across the board as oil gets scarce and basic commodities cost more. What kind of physical infrastructure would we have to create to continue to survive?
• During the transition period, when we’re shifting from the cheap-oil infrastructure to the new-way-of-living infrastructure, all our money and energy will be going into a shift to new infrastructure that doesn’t directly create new goods and services. (Remember: wages are stagnant, so people can’t afford to pay for all this on their own.) How do we fund the transition?
• What if global warming causes sea levels to rise 20 feet? Would our rescue busses wait, as they did during Katrina, for someone to pay them to help people escape? If not, how would our economic system provide for such a massive dislocation? And if it couldn’t, how would the survivors dispose of several million decomposing bodies?

Just a few thoughts…

Posted by Stever as Community, Oil, Misc at 8:16 PM EDT

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Money! If you have it, you’re a worthwhile human being. If you don’t, well, then, you suck.
So says the cultural undertone at Harvard Business School. At least when I attended HBS, there was a subtle attitude of money = worth. You’ve simply got to be an investment banker, consultant, or Fortune 500 CEO, or your life is wasted. No one says it out loud, of course. In fact, many who most deeply embody that thinking would proclaim that self worth has nothing to do with money. Some would actually believe their own denial.

At the five year reunion, the undercurrent is: who’s making how much, doing what? The competition is on! Everyone smiles graciously, while making sure that everyone else knows Life is Perfect and Success Has Arrived.

The ten year reunion, rumor had it, would tone down the hyper-achievement. And so it did. Somewhat. After all, we were just coming off the internet bubble and had several hundred-millionaire-and-above classmates who’d cashed out in the frenzy. So much of the conversation was still about money.
Our 15-year reunion starts tonight. They claim that finally, this reunion isn’t about the money, but about life and family and friends. So this morning, I receive a letter from the HBS development office listing every classmate who gave more than $10,000 and the dollar range of their contribution.Am I the only person in the world who finds this crass and tacky? What’s the point? For low-income classmates to stare at the list of well-off doobies and realize that they (the low-incomers) will never get their name on the Big Board as being a major donor? For people who have served on committees, taken an active interest in the school, etc. to realize that it’s the size of their endowment contribution that counts, not the size of their commitment to the school? Or is this simply a reminder that if you don’t give, you aren’t worthwhile, so give give give, because look how much your classmate Alan gave.

I’ll tell you what. Your worth as a human being is related exactly, precisely, to YOU. You aren’t one bit more valuable because you have, give, or receive money. Bill Gates gives millions to cure maleria? That’s nice, and not to be discounted. But it doesn’t make him a better person. It simply shows that if you’re worth $100 billion, you can give $40 billion to your foundation and still be the richest man in the world. It would be rather like a middle-manager giving $10,000 to charity or to HBS. It gets noticed, but it isn’t exactly sacrifice.

So go build your worth as a human being by being a better one. Find ways to make the world better for your having been here. Find your potential to do something great and go do it. Climb Mt. Everest. Invent renewable, clean energy. Smile at your children. Love your friends.

And for goodness’ sake, if you insist on believing that your worth is related to how much money you give, fine… give it to someone who aspires to Be Themself in a Grand Way. It will go a lot farther than sitting on the wall of an ultra-rich institution, a monument to ego and endowment.

Posted by Stever as Community, Misc at 8:03 AM EDT

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Happy Birthday to Me,
Happy Birthday to Me,
Happy Birthday Dear Stever…
Happy Birthday to Me.

“Happy Birthday, Stever!!”
—Automated email sent by a website I’m registered with

Unlike most of you, I’ve been using the Internet(1) since 1977. All my middle-school friends were people I met online. Until tenth grade. After moving to San Diego and making some real, live friends, it was a revelation: people are a lot more fun in person than they are online. Life since then has been an ongoing search for community, companionship, and friendship.
People made fun of me as a geek thirty years ago. Today, they’re where I was, and I have no sympathy whatsoever.

It’s my birthday. What did I get? A bunch of e-cards. If you’re someone who sent one, I appreciate the thought. Sort of. Here’s what goes on in my head when I get an e-card:

Ooooh, I feel so … loved. Someone took time for me! They browsed a web page, clicked their mouse, and typed my email address. In some cases, their automated Birthday service even sent the ecard automatically. Wow! What a warm fuzzy feeling! Technology lets them be my friend so … efficiently. That’s the point of life, after all, to be efficient. The alternative is almost too horrible to contemplate. Did you know, in the olden days, they would have, say, picked up the phone and dialed(2) ten digits. It would have meant lifting a finger instead of just moving one up and down, but that’s OK. They’d probably just get my voicemail anyway. After all, who has time to talk on the phone any more?

And this, gentle readers, is what passes for friendship in lovely 2006. Next year, if you’re tempted to send me an e-card, don’t bother. I won’t feel loved. It will just clutter up my inbox and waste my time(3). If you want to show you care, get out a pen or pencil and write me a postcard. In hand-writing. And use my name (spell it correctly, please). Do anything to show that it’s really you writing, and you’re deliberately, purposely writing to me.

I don’t want a relationship with your automated Birthday Mailer.

I don’t want cheerful, Arial 10 greetings with optionally bolded text and a link to your 6 favorite BLOGs.

I don’t want a cute animated “Happy Birthday” logo.

I want human connection. Is that too much to ask? In 2006, the answer would seem to be Yes.

— Stever

(1) Then, the ARPANET. I used MIT-MC (no domain names back then), which ran ITS (The Incompatible Time-Sharing System).

(2) Now I feel old. For all you millenials, phones used to have dials instead of buttons. That’s why we “dial” a phone.

(3) I’m in hour 2 of trying to figure out which firewall, spam blocker, and cookie collector is preventing my Dad’s JacqueLawton.com eCard from displaying. Just think, if I’d known in advance this would be so hard to view, I would have just called Dad. But now it’s too late. I have to go set up for my birthday party. All my time, used up by the card. No time left to talk to Dad. Is there a relationship here? Sure. It’s between me and JacqueLawton’s embedded Flash Object. We’ve spent more time together than I spend with most humans. If I ever talk to Dad again, I’ll have to remember to thank him for introducing us.

Posted by Stever as Community, Misc at 3:30 PM EDT

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